Our Work in Action

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone argues that bitcoin still faces a severe downside risk unless it can decisively reclaim and hold the 75,000 dollar level, which he treats as the line that would weaken his bearish thesis. His warning is based more on market structure and macro conditions than on a single short term catalyst: he points to bitcoin’s long history around the 10,000 dollar area before the post-2020 liquidity boom, and suggests that if broader risk assets keep repricing lower, BTC could be pulled much closer to those older levels again. The 10,000 dollar target remains an extreme scenario rather than a near term base case, but in McGlone’s view the market has not ruled it out as long as bitcoin stays below 75,000 dollars and remains tied to a wider risk-off environment.

The Ethereum Foundation has staked another 45,034 ETH, worth about 93 million dollars, bringing its total staked amount to roughly 70,000 ETH and completing the treasury staking target it set earlier this year. The move is part of a broader strategy to generate operating income from staking rewards instead of relying as heavily on direct ETH sales, while also putting more of the foundation’s balance sheet into active participation in Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system. Even after reaching this goal, the foundation still holds a large unstaked reserve, so the shift represents a more active treasury approach rather than a full lockup of its ether.

Grayscale says the Iran war and the oil shock it triggered have pushed many crypto investors into a wait-and-see stance, even though the longer term case for digital assets remains intact. The core concern is that higher energy prices can keep inflation elevated, delay rate cuts and weaken appetite for risk assets, which helps explain why crypto has struggled to build momentum while the conflict hangs over markets. Broader reporting on the region shows the same macro pattern, with conflict-driven oil volatility feeding investor caution across asset classes. Grayscale’s view is that this is more of a macro overhang than a collapse in the crypto thesis itself, since structural themes like stablecoin growth and tokenization still look solid once geopolitical pressure and energy stress begin to ease.

Australia has passed a national crypto licensing law that brings exchanges, custody providers and other digital asset platforms under a formal financial services framework, requiring them to obtain licences and meet standards around customer asset protection, disclosures and conduct. The move is significant not only because it gives the industry clearer rules after years of uncertainty, but also because it is being framed as a major economic opportunity, with earlier estimates suggesting Australia could unlock around A$24 billion a year in digital finance benefits if it built a workable regulatory environment. The law does not make every firm instantly compliant, since companies now face a transition period to meet the new requirements, but it gives the market a much clearer path forward and positions Australia as a more serious regulated destination for crypto and tokenized finance in the Asia-Pacific region.

New research suggests the quantum threat to crypto wallets may be closer than many assumed, with one estimate indicating that about 10,000 physical qubits could be enough to break commonly used elliptic curve encryption under a specific architecture, while Google separately said future quantum systems might crack ECDSA-256 with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits, far below its earlier estimates.  That does not mean bitcoin or ether wallets are in immediate danger today, because machines at that level do not yet exist, but it does mean the safety margin around current wallet cryptography may be shrinking faster than expected.  The main risk would fall first on wallets whose public keys are already exposed onchain, such as older or reused addresses, which is why the issue is increasingly being framed as a migration problem rather than an instant collapse scenario.  With NIST already having finalized its first post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024, the takeaway is that the industry still has time, but not unlimited time, to start planning safer signature schemes and wallet upgrade paths before quantum hardware becomes powerful enough to matter.

The Ethereum Foundation has staked another 20,470 ETH, worth about 42 million dollars, as part of its broader plan to put more of its treasury to work instead of leaving it idle. The move supports the network’s proof-of-stake system while also helping the foundation generate operating income through staking rewards rather than relying as much on direct ETH sales. Even after the deposit, the foundation still held a large reserve of ether, so this was a significant allocation but not a full commitment of its treasury. Overall, the decision points to a more active treasury strategy centered on yield generation, validator participation and closer alignment with Ethereum’s long term staking economics.